🎯 OSHI'S AGENT ECOSYSTEM
TODAY'S TRADING — KXBTC15M · CPE-15 · LAST 25 SETTLED
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TODAY'S TRADES
CPE-15 — Calibrated Probability Edge
Oshi trades 15-minute BTC up/down contracts on Kalshi. She compares her own probability estimate against the market price to find edges — then only trades when the market is significantly wrong. Every buy gets an automatic take-profit at 85¢. If she's right, profit locks before settlement. If she's wrong, loss is capped at entry cost. The result: average wins (+$65) exceed average losses (-$36).
How It Works
Trend Detection — EMA-5 / EMA-13
Price above both EMAs with EMA-5 > EMA-13 = BULLISH. Reverse = BEARISH. If mixed, Oshi skips the window entirely. One clear signal, not three redundant filters.
Regime Detection — RSI-14
60-70 = strong momentum (+5% confidence). 50-60 = mild (+0%). Over 70 = overbought penalty (-8%). Under 30 = oversold penalty (-8%). Prevents chasing tops and bottoms.
Volatility Check — ATR-6
Average True Range on 15m candles. Below $50 = market too quiet, skip. Above $100 = elevated volatility bonus (+3% confidence). Ensures there's enough price movement to resolve contracts.
Edge Calculation — The Key Innovation
Confidence minus Kalshi contract price = edge. If Oshi calculates 62% probability but the YES contract costs 45¢, that's a 17¢ edge. Minimum 7¢ to trade. This is what TVM15 was missing — market price awareness.
GTC Take Profit at 85¢
Every buy immediately gets a Good-Til-Cancelled sell order at 85¢. Winners exit early with locked profit before settlement. Losers settle at $0. This is the profit engine — average win ($65) exceeds average loss ($36) because GTC captures profit on partial moves.
Safety Systems
Layer 1: fcntl Lock
Atomic file lock prevents duplicate processes. Only one CPE-15 instance can run. Auto-releases on crash. Solved the 8-rogue-process incident.
Layer 2: Pre-Trade Validation
10-point safety check before every order: balance, exposure, direction consistency, edge threshold, market timing, position limits, and more.
Layer 3: API Exposure Check
Queries Kalshi API for existing positions and pending orders before any buy. Prevents duplicate positions even if flag state is corrupted.
TRADE LOG — LAST 50 · KXBTC15M ONLY